Same demand. Two operating assumptions. Eighteen months to see what actually changes.
Lucio · month 18
1,921
Alternative · month 18
1,767
+154 builders
Lucio leads under these assumptions — not evidence of superiority.
The starting scenario isolates ramp-up: 0 vs. an illustrative 3 months, with equal graduation and retention. No measured candidate comparison is available. Ramp-up delays new production cohorts only; it does not imply zero activity.
Each month adds new builders × graduation rate after ramp-up. Existing production builders survive at D180 retention^(1/6) each month. Demand is constant; there are no costs, capacity limits, paid conversion, revenue or causal effects. Graduation and retention remain assumptions until cohort data validates them. B4 and B5 suggest mechanisms; they receive no automatic numerical uplift.
The case for Lucio
Reward production: a domain, database, auth and recurring users.
CANONICAL SUPPORT · SELF-REPORTED
I Built This brings together hundreds of Brazilian builders; outcome uplift remains unverified.
KILL CRITERION
Stop if graduated cohorts do not retain better at D180.
17 Oct thesis · Graduation
Partner-built WhatsApp + Pix templates reduce the path to production.
CANONICAL SUPPORT · SELF-REPORTED
Local checkout and payment friction documented through product feedback; conversion impact remains unverified.
KILL CRITERION
Stop if integrated templates do not reduce time-to-production.
17 Oct thesis · Brazilian integrations
A practical rubric and a partner directory with public criteria and SLA.
CANONICAL SUPPORT · SELF-REPORTED
A certification rubric is described in the thesis; it is not a validated retention result.
KILL CRITERION
Stop if certified partners' customers do not retain better.
17 Oct thesis · Certification
The strongest case is not a rigged leaderboard. It is an operating advantage already in motion, testable bets, and the discipline to stop what fails.